New NBA SuperStars: Is it time?
By Sooter Saalu
Last Analysis made on SEP. 16. 2020
A look at the NBA playoff battle between the Denver Nuggets and the Utah Jazz will have you wowed by the absolute masterclass of scoring ability, and the will to win shown by both teams over the course of 7 games.
But the spotlight was definitely on two players; Donovan Mitchell of the Utah Jazz and Jamal Murray of the Denver Nuggets, both players played to record breaking heights, setting an All Time High for points scored by opposing players in a playoff series, among other records, with their efforts. Although the series finished in favour of the Denver Nuggets, Mitchell still tops the Points per Game playoff leaderboard.
While their achievements are worthy to be noted, what gives it that extra sparkle is that this was not a battle between legendary giants like Lebron or Harden but relatively younger players new to the NBA (Donovan is 24 with 3 seasons under his belt and Jamal is 23 with 4 seasons).
This leaves all NBA fans wondering Is it Time? Are we seeing a New Wave of NBA superstars coming into their dominant positions?
Data Analysis
Over the course of this report, we will look through player performances and the statistics associated with them in order to evaluate the ‘success’ of young players in the NBA; denoted here as players aged twenty-five (25) or younger. We would also compare the performances of these players with that of their older colleagues.
Performance statistics will be exclusively on the recently-concluded 2019–2020 regular season.
Stat Analysis
In our analysis, we will focus on four (4) critical player statistics that will help reveal dominant players;
- PTS (Points Scored): No matter the role or position a player fills for his NBA team, the ability to put up points against opponents will always be valued.
- PER (Player Efficiency Rating): This statistic measures a player’s per minute productivity by putting a player’s positive contributions against their negative contributions.
- WS (Win Shares): Another measure of contribution, this one focuses on the player’s contribution to the team’s win total (i.e. overall success).
- VORP (Value Over Replacement Player): This statistic is an estimate of a player’s contribution to the team over a replacement player. It is a derivative of the BPM (Box Plus/Minus). Advanced Stats
Using these stats, we can compare the overall performances of the ‘young’ and ‘old’ players.
The above visualization shows the average statistical performance by the old (Over 25) and young (25 and below). Comparing the age groups, we can see that on average our players over 25 outperform their younger counterparts across all statistics, only coming close on player efficiency rating (PER).
However, this does not conclude our analysis as by definition, NBA superstars are deviations from the average. Hence, in order to find these young players that can dominate the court with or against veterans in the sport, we need to look at the outliers.
In this visualization, we can immediately see there are young players who are consistently competing on the leaderboards of these statistics.
If any of these four statistics are used to rank the best players in the NBA, a player who is 25 or younger will always be in the top 5 for consideration.
Let’s have a closer look at who these young players that top the NBA league, despite their age, are.
We have names like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, Jason Tatum, Trae Young and Devin Booker, all players under 26 who are outlier superstars by more than one stat rating.
It is also important to note Giannis Antetokounmpo as he tops three (3) of the performance statistics in his age group and notably tops the player efficiency rating (PER) of the entire league, young or old. This makes him one of the best players in the league already at the age of 25 years.
Position Analysis
There are particular roles or positions that can be said to be advantaged towards a particular age group due to the requirements of the role or position. Qualities like quickness, physicality, experience, intelligence are beneficial for any position but some positions or roles might need it more.
Next, we take a look at the stats for each NBA traditional position and see which players and age groups are dominant.
Points Scored (PTS)
The above visualization shows averages, that is the average number of points scored by each age group across the various positions. When it comes to scoring, players over 25 are on average better than their younger colleagues across most positions. The power forward (PF) position looks approximately even from both age groups.
In order to investigate individual scores in each category and position, we take a look at the boxplot.
From the above boxplot, we can see that the center and power forward position have more young high scorers, even though the ’25 and below’ age group loses out on average.
In this visualization, we see that Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo, both 25 years old, top the league in scoring for the center and power forward positions respectively.
While they are not as dominant in their positions, names like Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell (SG), Trae Young, Luka Doncic and Andrew Wiggins are proof of the scoring potential in the young players of the shooting guard, shooting forward and point guard positions
Player Efficiency Rating (PER)
When it comes to the player efficiency rating (PER), young players on average edge out their older colleagues in the center and power forward positions. While the performance of the shooting guard, small forward and point guard positions are more in favour of the older players.
Giannis is the league leader in PER (Player efficiency rating) so he obviously tops the power forward position in this statistic.
But we have another young player topping the point guard position, which had older players dominating on average, Luka Doncic beats an older Damian Lillard to the top of the PG position showing how effective he was in his contributions to his team. Again in the center position, young players are dominant in player efficiency as Karl-Anthony Towns is rated highly for this position.
Win Shares (WS)
In terms of win shares, older players are on average dominant in all positions
In this statistic (Win Shares), we don’t see any young player being a sole dominant force. However, Giannis ties with the older Anthony Davis for the top spot in win shares for power forwards. While Nikola Jokic, Jarrett Allen, Luka Doncic, Devin Booker and Bam Adebayo do well for their respective position leaderboards.
Value over Replacement Player (VORP)
Again, we see that on average the older players outperform their younger counterparts. In this case, older players are on average more valuable than their theoretical replacement during the course of the NBA season.
The center and power forward position again have young players topping the statistic (VORP in this case) for their respective positions.
Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Doncic are three young players who have been consistently rated highly over their fellows, whether young or old. With Luka Doncic being a shocking 21 years with only 2 NBA seasons experience, the center, power forward and point guard roles have a young player (less than 26 years) leading their position statistics.
Looking at the other positions, there are a good number of excellent young shooting guards, like Devin Booker and Donovan Mitchell, but the top role is currently being dominated by an older James Harden who is an outlier to rival all other outliers across most stats as a shooting guard.
The small forward position is a curiosity with no young player claiming the significant outlier superstar status this season, leaving the role to be dominated by older players like Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler.
A look into what the role entails points to the versatility of the small forward position, while many young players in the shooting guard and power forward position have been known to slide into this role for their team, there has been no young breakout star leading the role.
Team Analysis
Moving away from individual statistics, let’s take a look at the young teams in the NBA (Mean age less than 26) and see how they are performing against other teams with more veterans or old players.
There are thirteen (13) young teams, that is teams with an average age of 25 or younger, this season
There you have it, out of 16 teams in the NBA playoffs, four (4) are young teams with a mean age less than 26 (Boston Celtics, Oklahoma City Thunder, Indiana Pacers and Denver Nuggets). Based on NBA rules, this means that only four (4) young teams finished within the top 8 (over 15) in their respective conferences. [Two conferences with 15 teams each, top 8 go to the playoffs]
Boston Celtics & Denver Nuggets made it past the semifinals and into the conference finals. As both teams go up against their respective matchups with young, fast players and multiple offensive options, there is a fair chance of a young team winning it all this year. Celtics Nuggets
Conclusion
In recent years’ higher-paced style of play, young players are getting the opportunity to wow and awe the league with their skills, becoming stars earlier than their older counterparts. So with players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, and Luka Doncic, we see players who are already superstars in their own right with the time and potential to be more.
Here’s to wishing them injury-free careers because it is their time to break past records with spectacle-filled NBA seasons.
** All Statistics were gotten from Basketball-Reference
**At the time of publishing, both young teams (Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets) had been defeated, with the 2020 playoff finals coming down to the LA Lakers and Miami Heat.**
